Muskwatch — Tesla & Elon Promise Tracker

Muskwatch

Source

Yahoo Finance (real-time)

TSLA · NasdaqGS · USD

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Stock Price

$382.20

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Formula

Market Cap = Price x Shares

$382.20 x 3.756B = $1.44T

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Market Cap

$1.44T

3.756B shares

Formula

P/E = Price / TTM EPS

$382.20 / $1.08 = 354

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P/E Ratio (TTM)

354

TTM through Q2 2026

Formula

P/S = Market Cap / TTM Revenue

$1,436B / $103.6B = 13.9

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P/S Ratio

13.9

TTM Revenue $103.6B

Next Earnings Report

Oct 22, 2026

Est. after close · Q3 2026 results

TSLA vs S&P 500 vs NASDAQ (% Change)

Revenue per Employee ($K)

Tesla Auto Industry Avg

Average Selling Price per Vehicle ($K)

Revenue by Geography ($B) — FY2025

Source: Tesla 10-K FY2025 geographic segments

Short Interest (% of Float)

3.0% Current (short % of float · Jul 2026)

Source: NASDAQ short interest reports, ORTEX

Insider Trading Activity

Date	Insider	Type	Shares	Value

Source: SEC Form 4 filings

Supercharger Network

Total Stalls

82,357

Connectors · end Q2 2026

Stations

8,704

+18% YoY · end Q2 2026

Recent Growth

+2.4K

stalls added Q2 2026

V4 Superchargers (up to 500kW class) deploying globally. NACS is the North American standard. Network open to non-Tesla EVs; ~25,000+ NACS-accessible stalls reported on Tesla.com.

Source: Tesla Q2 2026 Update (stations 8,704 · connectors 82,357)

Top 10 Pure BEV Sales (World)

Battery electric only · PHEV / hybrid excluded · FY full year

#1 Pure BEV

BYD

2.26M units · 2025

Tesla Rank

1.64M pure BEV

Tesla vs BYD BEV

−0.62M

first year BYD pure BEV leads

Scope

BEV

no PHEV / EREV mix

Global Pure BEV Brand Sales (K units)

FY2025 · pure battery EV only · Tesla highlighted

Definition: pure battery electric (BEV) passenger vehicles only — no PHEV, no range-extended hybrids. BYD figure is pure-BEV subset (not full NEV). Tesla deliveries are 100% BEV. Other brands use company / industry tracker estimates of pure-BEV volume. Sources: company IR, CnEVPost / CPCA, industry tallies (EV Volumes–style). Rankings can differ by wholesale vs retail and region cutoffs.

DCF Calculator — Implied Share Price

Revenue Growth Rate (%)

Discount Rate (%)

Terminal Multiple (x)

Implied Share Price

Base: TTM Revenue $103.6B (first >$100B TTM), FCF margin 6.5%, 3.756B shares. 5-year projection. This is a simplified model for educational purposes only.

Price Alert Simulator

Target Price: $

Key Milestones Timeline

EV Competitor Comparison — FY2025 / Live Caps

Metric	Tesla	BYD	Rivian	Lucid
Revenue (FY)	$94.8B	$109.4B	$4.8B	$0.8B
Deliveries (FY)	1.64M	4.27M	51K	9K
Gross Margin	17.9%	20.4%	-5.2%	-112%
Net Income	$3.8B	$4.5B	-$4.7B	-$2.7B
Market Cap	~$1.44T	~$110B	~$12B	~$6B
P/S (TTM)	~14.7x	~1x	~2.5x	~7.5x
Cash	$36.6B	~$18B	$5.8B	$3.4B
H1 2026 deliv.	838K	—	—	—

Source: Company filings, SEC 10-K/20-F. Tesla market cap/P/S live as of Jul 2026; peer caps approximate.

FSD Miles Driven

Tesla FSD Safety Report · milestones via public trackers · tesla.com/fsd/safety

Supervised Miles

12.6B

Tesla FSD Safety counter

Unsupervised Miles

380K+

Ashok · Q2 2026 earnings

City Miles (Supervised)

4.87B

hardest training data

Latest 1B Pace

37 days

~27M supervised mi / day

Supervised FSD Miles (Billions)

Customer / fleet FSD (Supervised) · active driver required · 2026 YTD

Unsupervised Robotaxi Miles

Endpoint: Ashok Elluswamy Q2 2026 call (>380k) · path modeled at ~10% WoW weekly-rate growth (Musk / Ashok)

Official (Jul 22, 2026): Ashok — >380,000 unsupervised Robotaxi miles across 6 cities / 2 states, zero notable incidents; double-digit week-over-week growth in weekly unsupervised miles since start of 2026. Musk — network growing >10% a week in miles driven. Intermediate months are a ~10% WoW compound model fitted to that endpoint (Tesla did not publish monthly cumulatives). Scale is still ~30,000× smaller than supervised FSD miles.

Days to Add Each 1 Billion Supervised Miles

How many days each successive 1B took · lower bar = faster

Sources: Tesla FSD Safety · annual increments Sawyer Merritt / Teslarati · billion-mile intervals from public counter reads · Tesla’s public counter is not real-time — it estimates daily growth and stair-steps when rebased.

Robotaxi Fleet Status

Snapshot Jul 24, 2026 · RobotaxiTracker.com · not official Tesla counts

Active Rider Vehicles

—

sum of live markets

Unsupervised Now

—

no driver in vehicle (TX)

Live Markets

—

metros with service

Largest City

Bay Area

supervised only (CA)

Robotaxi by City

Active rider vehicles · teal = unsupervised subset · community tracker snapshot

Total rider vehicles Unsupervised subset

City Breakdown

City	Riders	Unsupervised	Mode	Status

Robotaxi Map

Shaded circles = approx. service coverage · pin = fleet size · green = unsupervised · zoom in on small TX/FL zones

Map tiles © OpenStreetMap. Coverage circles are approximate (circle model from public reports: Austin ~245 sq mi full metro; Dallas/Houston small launch zones; Miami tiny; Bay Area illustrative supervised footprint). Not Tesla’s official app polygons · fleet pins are community tracker counts, not live car GPS. Tip: zoom into Austin / Dallas / Houston / Miami — national view makes small zones look like dots.

Fleet Growth (Estimated Monthly)

Total active rider vehicles across markets · Bay Area scale-up dominates 2026

Cybercab Count

Tracker + spotter · Giga Texas production began · not official Tesla production totals

Tracked Test Fleet

~70+

RobotaxiTracker city tags

Spotter Peak

~220

Giga TX lot / drone counts

Status

In production

Giga Texas · early S-curve

Form Factor

2-seat

no wheel · no pedals

Cybercabs Over Time

Spotter / tracker estimates · stair-steps when public counts update

Cybercab Timeline

Sources: RobotaxiTracker city Cybercab tags, Giga Texas drone / lot footage, Q1–Q2 2026 earnings (“production began”), community spotters. Counts are estimates of visible / tagged vehicles — not cumulative factory output or customer deliveries.

Optimus Humanoid

Tesla Q2 2026 Update · AI Day / We, Robot · not production volume reports

Generation

Gen 3

lines installing · Fremont

Status

Pre-volume

Academy builds first

Site

Fremont

S/X line conversion

Musk price target

<$20–30K

claim · not list price

Program Timeline (milestones)

Public demos & production statements — not unit shipments

Milestone Path

Q2 2026 Update: first-generation Optimus lines installing at Fremont after Model S/X decommission. Initial builds go to Optimus Academy (training data / functionality) — not external customers. “Volume production” language was removed vs earlier 2026 guidance. Long-term Musk claim: most valuable product; capacity ambitions up to ~1M/yr are aspirational, not a current run-rate. Sources: Tesla IR Q2 2026 Update, AI Day 2021–22, We Robot Oct 2024.

Promise Tracker (Optimus category)

From Muskwatch Promises tab · status as of site data

Tesla Semi

Nevada volume line · Q2 2026 IR · limited public delivery tallies

Volume line

Apr 2026

first truck off NV line

Factory capacity

50K/yr

nameplate · Giga Nevada

Range (demo)

500 mi

highway · max weight claim

Charge

1.2 MW

Megacharger class

Estimated Annual Semi Units (sparse)

Tesla does not publish Semi deliveries quarterly · pilot → volume transition estimates · labeled

Program Timeline

Reveal Nov 2017 → first PepsiCo deliveries Dec 2022 (limited pilot) → dedicated ~1.7M sq ft Nevada plant → volume production started ~Apr 29, 2026 (first unit off high-volume line). Early customers: PepsiCo, DHL, Walmart, Costco (public reports). Analyst 2026 volume often cited 5–15K (not Tesla guidance). Q2 2026: Tesla increasing 4680 cells to support Semi + Cybercab + Model Y ramps. Sources: Tesla Semi X account / IR, Electrek Apr 2026, Wikipedia Tesla Semi.

Promise Tracker (Semi-related)

Megapack & Energy Storage

Same deployment / revenue series as Market charts · Tesla IR

Q2 2026 Deployed

13.5 GWh

record quarter · IR

H1 2026

22.3 GWh

8.8 + 13.5

FY2025 Deployed

46.7 GWh

+113% YoY

Q2 Energy Rev

$3.14B

+13% YoY

Energy Storage Deployments (GWh)

Brought from Market / charts data · quarterly or annual

Energy Revenue ($B)

Megapack + Powerwall + solar generation/services · IR

Megafactory Capacity (nameplate GWh/yr)

Q2 2026 Update factory table · not utilization

Lathrop CA Megapack 40 GWh · Shanghai Megapack 20 GWh · Nevada Powerwall >6 GWh · Texas Megapack commissioning. Megapack 3 + Megablock targeted to begin production 2026 at Megafactory Texas (volume timing tightened in mid-2026 commentary). Sources: Tesla Q2 2026 Update PDF, prior IR energy tables (also plotted on Market tab).

Batteries & Cells

4680 + supplier cells · Battery Day → Q2 2026 · sparse official GWh splits

Cell formats

2170 / 4680

+ supplier LFP packs

4680 status

Ramping

Cybercab · Semi · Y

Battery Day

Sep 2020

5× energy claim (target)

Storage link

Megapack

mostly non-4680 today

4680 Readiness Score (qualitative)

Public milestones scored 0–100 · not Tesla official yield % · shows ramp narrative

Where Cells Go (illustrative share)

Illustrative mix of demand focus mid-2026 · not published Tesla split

Q2 2026 Update: increasing 4680 production for Cybercab, Semi, and Model Y. Vehicle packs still mostly supplier 2170 / LFP depending on region. Megapack fleet historically LFP / non-4680. Sources: Battery Day 2020, Tesla IR Q1–Q2 2026, Model Y 4680 reintegration reports (early 2026).

Battery Timeline

Promise Tracker (4680 / battery)

China NEV Market

Source: CPCA, CAAM, company IR filings

China Total NEV Sales (M units)

BEV + PHEV · Source: CAAM

Brand Growth Comparison (K units)

Revenue Comparison ($B USD)

Quarterly 2023–Q2 2026 · Tesla Q2’26 official; peer Q2’26 pending · Source: company IR

Net Profit / Loss Comparison ($B USD)

Quarterly 2023–Q2 2026 · Negative = net loss · Source: Company reports

Latest Update — Q2 2026 Earnings (Jul 22)

Record revenue, profit miss: Revenue $28.24B (+26% YoY, beat). GAAP EPS $0.32 / non-GAAP $0.33 (miss). GAAP NI $1.11B. Gross margin 16.8%; operating income $398M (1.4% margin).
First >$100B TTM revenue: Trailing-twelve-month revenue ~$103.6B. TTM GAAP EPS $1.08.
Capex surge / FCF burn: Operating cash flow $4.70B; capex $5.79B (+142% YoY) → FCF −$1.09B. Cash + investments $43.52B. FY26 capex guided >$25B.
Segments: Auto $20.52B (+23%), Energy $3.14B (+13%), Services $4.58B (+50%, record GP/margin). Regulatory credits only $146M (−67% YoY).
Ops: Deliveries 480,126 (+25% YoY) · production 451,758 · inventory 15 days (drew down Q1 stack). Storage 13.5 GWh. Superchargers: 8,704 stations / 82,357 connectors.
Autonomy & hardware: Cybercab production began at Giga Texas. Robotaxi live in 7 major metros (incl. 3 FL cities in July). Active FSD subscriptions 1.48M. Optimus line construction at Fremont after S/X decommission. See dedicated tabs: Optimus · Semi · Megapack · Batteries.
H1 2026: ~838K vehicles delivered. Energy storage H1 = 22.3 GWh. Stockholders’ equity $86.9B end-Q2.
FSD miles: Counter crossed 12B cumulative FSD (Supervised) miles on Jul 17, 2026 (~27M mi/day on last 1B).

Sources: Tesla Q2 2026 Update PDF, production 8-K, earnings call · site refresh Jul 23, 2026

Earnings Call Highlights

S-1/A IPO Terms

$135

555,555,555 Class A shares; applied ticker SPCX on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas

Consolidated Revenue

$18.674B

FY2025; Q1 2026 revenue was $4.694B

FY2025 Profit Profile

-$2.589B

Operating loss; Adjusted EBITDA was $6.584B

Control

82.4%

Musk voting power after offering; Class B carries 10 votes/share

Source discipline: this page now uses Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s May 20, 2026 S-1 and June 3, 2026 S-1/A unless a row is explicitly marked outside-S-1. The S-1/A recasts historical periods to include xAI and X because both were common-control transactions. SEC S-1/A

IPO Ratio Snapshot

Implied Market Cap

$1.432T

$135 x 10.607B pro forma shares

P/S Ratio

76.7x

Based on FY2025 revenue of $18.674B

P/E Ratio

N/M

FY2025 pro forma EPS was -$0.51

PEG Ratio

N/M

Standard PEG is not meaningful with negative earnings

Revenue growth charts show +34.9% in 2024, +33.2% in 2025, and +15.4% Q1 2026 YoY. The page also charts P/S divided by revenue growth as a rough growth-adjusted sales multiple; it is not a standard PEG substitute.

Annual history and Q1 2026 points are from the S-1/A. Percentage, margin, mix, and orbital launch-math charts are calculated directly from disclosed S-1/A values and assumptions. Starship launch-rate targets are outside-S-1 reported targets: 2028-2030 source / 2031 source. The S-1/A does not give dated 1GW/10GW/100GW orbital AI ramp targets.

Investor Checklist From The Filing

Upside: Starlink/Connectivity generated $4.423B operating income and $7.168B Segment Adjusted EBITDA in 2025.

Upside: Backlog was $27.621B as of Mar 31, 2026, including launch services, connectivity, and AI contracts.

Upside: Falcon 9 had approximately 620 orbital launches and over 99% mission success as of Mar 31, 2026.

Watch: FY2025 capex was $20.737B; Q1 2026 capex alone was $10.107B, driven heavily by AI infrastructure.

Watch: Space segment was loss-making in Q1 2026 as Starship R&D reached $930M for the quarter.

Watch: The filing says SpaceX does not maintain as much insurance as many companies; in-orbit satellites are currently uninsured.

Governance: Musk remains controlling shareholder; SpaceX expects to be a controlled company after the offering.

Structure

xAI → SpaceX

X was acquired by xAI effective Mar 28, 2025; SpaceX acquired xAI effective Feb 2, 2026

Integrated Reach

550M

Monthly active users as of Mar 31, 2026

Supported Accounts

1.3B+

Active in the twelve months ended Mar 31, 2026

Grok Usage

117M

MAUs used Grok AI features as of Mar 31, 2026

Boundary: the S-1/A reports X inside SpaceX's AI segment. It does not provide a standalone X valuation, employee count, or DAU figure, so those old estimates were removed.

X Ratio Boundary

Standalone P/S

N/A

No standalone market cap disclosed

Standalone P/E

N/M

No standalone net income disclosed

Standalone PEG

N/M

No valid P/E denominator exists

AI Segment Growth

+12.5%

Q1 2026 revenue growth YoY

X is not analyzed as a separately traded security because the S-1/A consolidates it inside SpaceX's AI segment. The charts show segment revenue growth and the disclosed X/Grok operating metrics instead.

The revenue and profitability charts are SpaceX AI-segment disclosures, not standalone X financial statements. Advertising remains meaningful, but AI solutions and infrastructure exceeded advertising in Q1 2026. Legal amount charts show disclosed matters only and are not a forecast of total exposure.

X + Grok Investor Notes

What X contributes: real-time data, consumer distribution, advertising inventory, and Grok product surface area.

What the filing emphasizes: AI revenue and operating margin, not standalone X MAU growth as the core objective.

Product surface: Grok is integrated across X, and Grok Business / Grok Enterprise are positioned for paying customers.

Usage signal: Imagine generated about 10B images and over 2B videos per month on average in Q1 2026.

Risk: advertiser demand, content-moderation regulation, platform trust, and competition remain material.

Risk: common-control transactions make historical comparability harder; the filing recasts all periods, but X was not always part of SpaceX.

AI Segment Revenue

$3.201B

FY2025; Q1 2026 was $818M

AI Operating Loss

-$6.355B

FY2025; Q1 2026 operating loss was $2.469B

Nameplate Compute

1.0 GW

COLOSSUS + COLOSSUS II as of Q1 2026

AI Capex

$12.727B

FY2025; Q1 2026 capex was $7.723B

xAI Ratio Boundary

Standalone P/S

N/A

No standalone xAI market cap disclosed

Standalone P/E

N/M

AI segment is operating-loss negative

Standalone PEG

N/M

No valid positive P/E denominator exists

Revenue Growth

+22.2%

FY2025 AI segment revenue growth

The S-1/A gives AI-segment revenue, costs, EBITDA, operating loss, capex, and compute metrics. It does not give standalone xAI shares, market cap, or net income, so standalone P/S, P/E, and PEG would be false precision.

These charts use S-1/A AI-segment disclosures. Derived orbital launch-math uses the filing's 100 kW/ton, 100 metric ton V3, 200 metric ton future-generation, 10GW/year, and 100GW/year assumptions. COLOSSUS next phase and Terafab are company-stated targets; Terafab projects, timelines, milestones, and capex were not determined in the filing.

Investor Checklist From The Filing

Upside: vertical integration across compute, models, X distribution, Starlink, and future orbital compute is the strategic bet.

Upside: COLOSSUS II expansion could add at least 220,000 GB300 processors and over 400 MW of compute power.

Upside: Terafab collaboration with Tesla and Intel has a long-term goal of 1 TW/year compute hardware manufacturing.

Watch: the S-1/A says Terafab projects, timelines, milestones, and capex were not yet determined.

Watch: xAI relies on third-party GPUs and critical components, with no long-term or material direct chip-supplier contracts disclosed.

Watch: Memphis/Southaven power, gas turbine, permitting, and environmental scrutiny are live execution risks.

Watch: the filing warns scaling laws may not continue and AI demand may not justify the capital spend.

Valuation

$9.6B

Series E, May 2025

Total Funding

$1.2B+

$650M Series E (May 2025) latest

Human Implants

US, Canada, UK, UAE

Employees

635

As of Mar 31, 2026

Funding History ($M)

Seed-B

$39M

Series C

$205M

Series D

$323M

Series E

$650M

$1.2B+ total. Investors: Sequoia, Lightspeed, Thrive, Founders Fund, GV

Human Implant Progress

Jan 2024

1 patient

Mid 2024

3 patients

End 2025

8 patients

Apr 2026

12 patients

Across US, Canada, UK, UAE. High-volume automated production announced Jan 2026

BCI Competitor Funding ($M)

Neuralink

$1,200M

Synchron

$145M

Precision

$102M

Blackrock

~$50M

Neuralink 8x more funded than nearest competitor. Blackrock has 40+ patients (9+ years)

BCI Market Size ($B)

2025

$0.35B

2030

$0.68B

Early TAM

$80B

Long-term

$400B

Morgan Stanley: 2.8M US patients addressable near-term. Enhancement market much larger

Financials

Revenue: Pre-revenue (clinical trial stage). Target $1B annual by 2031

Key Rounds: $205M Series C (Jul 2023), $323M Series D (Nov 2023), $650M Series E (May 2025)

Investors: Sequoia Capital, Lightspeed, Thrive Capital, Founders Fund, Google Ventures

Profit/Loss: Loss-making (R&D stage)

Operations

Founded: Jul 2016

HQ: Fremont, CA. New facility planned: Del Valle, TX (near Tesla Gigafactory)

CEO: Jared Birchall (also manages Musk family office). Key: Shivon Zilis (Dir Ops), DJ Seo (VP Eng, co-founder)

Ownership: Musk majority owner (exact % undisclosed)

Products: N1 implant (BCI chip), R1 surgical robot

Pipeline: Telepathy (thought-to-device), Blindsight (vision restoration), Deep (Parkinson's tremor treatment)

Clinical Progress — 21 Participants Enrolled

Total Enrolled: 21 participants (as of Jan 28, 2026) across 4 countries

Cumulative Usage: 2,000+ days, 15,000+ hours

Typing Speed: Avg ~14 WPM, peak 40 WPM

Serious Device Adverse Events: Zero reported

FDA Status: Breakthrough Device Designation. PRIME + VOICE trials active

2026 Plans: High-volume production, automated surgery, 3x capability next-gen implant, Blindsight first human trial

IDENTIFIED PATIENTS

#1 Noland ArbaughActive

Implant: Jan 29, 2024 · Barrow Neurological, Phoenix AZ

Condition: Quadriplegia (C4/C5 spinal cord injury, diving accident 2016)

Capabilities: Cursor control, chess, video games, web browsing. Beat 2017 world record for BCI cursor speed on day 1

Complication: ~85% of threads retracted weeks after surgery (trapped air in skull). Fixed via software algorithm. Stabilized

First: First human Neuralink implant. First livestreamed BCI chess game (Mar 20, 2024)

Study: PRIME (US)

#2 Alex ConleyActive

Implant: Jul 2024 · Barrow Neurological, Phoenix AZ

Condition: Complete spinal cord injury (C4/C5 vertebrae fracture)

Capabilities: Cursor control within 5 min. Counter-Strike 2 within hours. 3D CAD (Fusion 360). Flew RC airplane and drone with mind. Controlled robotic arm

Complication: None. No thread retraction (improved surgical technique)

First: First to control robotic arm. First 3D CAD via BCI. Broke world record for BCI cursor control

Study: PRIME (US)

#3 UnnamedActive

Implant: ~Jan 2025 · USA (confirmed by Musk Jan 8, 2025)

Device: N1 upgraded — more electrodes, higher bandwidth, longer battery

Status: "All are working well" — Musk

Study: PRIME (US)

#4 Mike MelgarejoHealth Declining

Implant: ~Feb 2025 · USA

Condition: ALS (diagnosed 2022). 44yo survey technician, San Diego

Capabilities: Briefly held full-time job using thought. First BCI patient to work full-time

Status: ALS progressing (not implant-related). By Jun 2025 "not in a good place mentally, financially, physically." Neuralink supportive

First: First Neuralink patient to hold a full-time job via implant

Study: PRIME (US)

#5 RJ (Paralyzed Veteran)Active

Implant: Apr 2025 · Miami Project to Cure Paralysis, University of Miami FL

Condition: Spinal cord injury from motorcycle accident

Capabilities: Smartphone/computer control, video games. Turned on TV himself for first time in 2+ years

First: First patient at The Miami Project (2nd US clinical site)

Study: PRIME (US)

#6 Unnamed (Former Dog Trainer)Active

Implant: ~Jun 2025 · USA

Condition: Quadriplegic after car accident (Dec 2022). Former dog trainer

Capabilities: Computer games and applications within 1 week of implant

Study: PRIME (US)

#7 UnnamedActive

Implant: ~Jun 2025 · Barrow Neurological, Phoenix AZ

Condition: Paralysis (details not disclosed)

Study: PRIME (US)

#8 Nick WrayActive

Implant: Jul 2025 · USA

Condition: ALS

Capabilities: Controlled robotic arm to feed himself (eat + drink). 8-hour work days. Operated wheelchair, opened fridge via thought. Moved 39 cylinders in 5 min, flipped 5 puzzle pegs. Microwaved meals independently

First: First ALS patient to self-feed via Neuralink robotic arm. Video got 20M+ views. Triggered 10,000+ ALS patients to join waitlist

Study: PRIME (US)

#9 Audrey CrewsActive

Implant: Jul 2025 · University of Miami Health Center FL

Condition: Quadriplegic since 2005 (C4-C5 compression, car accident, 20 years paralyzed)

Capabilities: Computer/laptop cursor, TV control. Can write her name and draw on computer

First: First woman in the world to receive a Neuralink implant

Study: PRIME (US)

#10-11 Two Canadian PatientsActive

Implant: Aug 27 + Sep 3, 2025 · Toronto Western Hospital (UHN), Canada

Condition: Both early 30s, cervical spinal cord injuries (Ontario + Alberta)

Capabilities: First patient controlled cursor by thought within minutes

First: First Neuralink surgeries performed outside the United States

Study: CAN-PRIME (Canada). Led by Dr. Andres Lozano. Up to 4 more authorized

#12 Paul (UK)Active

Implant: Oct 2025 · NHNN, UCLH London, UK

Condition: Motor neurone disease (MND/ALS)

Capabilities: Computer control with thoughts just hours after surgery. Games and daily independence

First: First UK patient to receive a Neuralink implant

Study: GB-PRIME (UK). Sites: UCLH + Newcastle. Up to 7 participants authorized

#13 Kenneth Shock (VOICE Trial)Active

Implant: Jan 2026 · USA

Condition: ALS

Capabilities: Translating thoughts into speech. Editing video. Computer control. All within weeks

First: First patient in VOICE clinical trial (speech restoration). Confirmed by Musk Mar 31, 2026

Study: VOICE (speech restoration — separate from PRIME). 20-30 planned by end 2026

Patients #14-21 (Unidentified): ~8 additional participants enrolled whose identities are not public. Likely include additional US patients (Barrow + Miami), UAE patients (Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi via UAE-PRIME), and additional UK/Canada participants.

ACTIVE CLINICAL TRIALS

PRIME (US)Barrow + Miami · 9+ implantedEnrolling

CAN-PRIMEToronto Western · 2 implanted / 6 maxActive

GB-PRIME (UK)UCLH + Newcastle · 1 implanted / 7 maxActive

UAE-PRIMECleveland Clinic Abu DhabiRegistered

VOICEUSA · 1 implanted / 20-30 plannedActive

BlindsightUAE planned · Vision restoration2026

Catalysts & Risks

▲ Expanded clinical trials — more patients, more countries

▲ Breakthrough Device designation speeds FDA path

▲ High-volume automated surgical implantation in development

▲ Morgan Stanley TAM estimate: $80B early, $400B long-term

▼ Neural inflammation (10% incidence in preclinicals)

▼ Signal degradation over time

▼ Long FDA timeline for non-medical use

▼ Ethical/regulatory barriers for enhancement use

Competitors: Synchron ($145M, no craniotomy), Blackrock Neurotech (40+ patients, 9+ years), Precision Neuroscience ($102M), Paradromics (wireless)

BCI TAM: $351M (2025), projected $684M by 2030. MS estimate: $80-400B

Valuation

~$5.7B

Down from $8.6B peak (Jul 2023)

Total Funding

$907M

$675.9M Series C (Apr 2022, Sequoia+Vy Capital)

Vegas Loop Riders

4M+

82K during CONEXPO Mar 2026 alone

Employees

679

As of Feb 28, 2026

Vegas Loop Expansion

2021 Launch

0.8 mi / 3 stn

Current

4.4 mi / 11 stn

Planned

29 mi / 51 stn

Airport connector targeting Q1 2026. Daily capacity target: 90,000

Cumulative Passengers

End 2022

~300K

End 2023

~1M

End 2024

~2M

Apr 2026

4M+

82K in one event (CONEXPO Mar 3-7, 2026). Target: 5-10M/yr with airport connector

Global Projects Pipeline

● Vegas LoopOperational

● Vegas Airport ConnectorConstruction

● Nashville Music City (10mi)Testing

● Dubai Loop (17km, 11 stn)Planned 2026

● Robovan Integration2028-2029

Financials

Revenue: Not disclosed. Estimated $50-200M (Vegas Loop fares + contracts)

Revenue 2026E: $200-500M if airport connector + new city projects launch

Profit/Loss: Likely loss-making or breakeven

Key Round: $675.9M Series C (Apr 2022). Led by Sequoia + Vy Capital

Investors: Valor Equity, Founders Fund, 8VC, Craft Ventures, DFJ Growth, Brookfield, Lennar, Tishman Speyer

Operations

Founded: Dec 17, 2016

HQ: Bastrop, Texas

President: Steve Davis (day-to-day since 2019). Musk: founder, strategic direction

Ownership: Musk ~80-90% (est). 6% held by SpaceX

Tech: Prufrock tunnel boring machine — goal of 1 mile/week

Products: Turnkey tunnel construction, Loop transit systems, software/control systems licensing

Projects

Vegas Loop: 11 stations operational, 4M+ cumulative passengers. Encore station opened Nov 2025

Vegas Expansion: Expanding to 29mi / 51 stations. Airport connector targeting Q1 2026. Daily capacity target: 90,000

Nashville: Music City Loop — 10mi, airport to downtown. Testing near Vanderbilt

Dubai: Dubai Loop — 17km pilot, 11 stations, targeting 2026

Future: Tesla Cybercab/Robovan integration in tunnels (2028-2029)

Catalysts & Risks

▲ Airport connector opening (massive ridership boost)

▲ Multi-city expansion (Nashville, Dubai)

▲ Autonomous vehicle integration (Tesla Cybercab)

▲ International projects (Dubai Loop)

▼ Scaling beyond Vegas unproven

▼ High upfront construction costs, long payback

▼ Regulatory/NIMBY opposition in new cities

▼ Competition from conventional transit (light rail, BRT)

Competitors: Herrenknecht, Robbins TBM (tunneling), monorails/light rail (transit), Uber/Lyft (ride-hailing)

Tunnel TAM: $27.7B (2025), projected $36B by 2029 (CAGR 6.8%)

Live News Feed

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Sources: Teslarati · Electrek · SpaceNews · Auto-refreshes every 10 minutes

Promise Accuracy Over Time (%)

Accuracy = delivered / (delivered + missed) for promises with that target year

Promises by Category

Promises by Status

FSD Promise Timeline (Gantt View)

Every FSD/autonomy promise mapped on a single timeline. Red = missed, green = delivered.

ARK Invest TSLA Price Target 2029

Bear

$800

Base

$1,400

Bull

$2,600

Source: ARK Big Ideas 2025 · Open-source model

Revenue Mix — Bull Case 2029

Robotaxi

$536B

63% of revenue · 7.5M fleet

Vehicle Sales

$204B

24% · ~12M units

Energy

$68B

8% · Storage + Solar

Insurance + Other

$42B

5% · Fleet data advantage

Key Assumptions

Robotaxi Launch & Scaling

ARK assumes Tesla launches unsupervised robotaxi in multiple US cities by 2026, scaling to 7.5M fleet vehicles by 2029.

Current reality (Jul 2026): ~760 active rider vehicles across 9 metros (Bay Area ~643 dominates, still supervised-only in CA). Unsupervised subset ~30 in TX. Cybercab production began; ~220 spotter peak. Far from 7.5M scale. Risk: Regulatory approval, reliability, public trust. Waymo still leads unsupervised scale.

Revenue per Robotaxi: $71K–$100K/yr

Each autonomous vehicle generates $71K–$100K annual revenue through ride-hailing, assuming 50-70% utilization rate at ~$1/mile.

Comparison: Uber drivers average ~$40-50K gross revenue/year. Waymo charges $2-4/mile in SF. ARK assumes Tesla undercuts at ~$1/mile but runs 16+ hours/day. Key variable: Utilization rate. Current Tesla robotaxi utilization: ~19% of operating hours. Needs 3-4x improvement.

12M Vehicle Sales by 2029

ARK projects Tesla sells ~12M vehicles annually by 2029, up from 1.64M in 2025. Requires 7x growth in 4 years.

Growth needed: ~63% CAGR. Tesla's actual CAGR 2020-2025 was ~27%. Deliveries declined in 2024 (-1%) and 2025 (-8.6%), but Q2 2026 jumped +25% YoY to 480K. H1 2026 = 838K. New models needed: Cybercab, affordable volume car, refreshed lineup. Risk: Competition from BYD (4.3M in 2025), legacy OEMs, Chinese EVs.

FSD Adoption: 50%+ Take Rate

ARK assumes FSD subscription adoption reaches 50%+ of Tesla fleet as unsupervised driving proves reliable.

Current take rate: Estimated 5-10% of new Tesla buyers purchase FSD ($8K) or subscribe ($99/mo). ARK needs 5-10x increase. Catalyst: True unsupervised FSD would be transformative. Signal: 12B cumulative FSD miles as of Jul 2026. Blocker: Consumer FSD still Level 2 supervised for most users.

40%+ Operating Margin on Robotaxi

ARK assumes software-like margins on robotaxi revenue since Tesla owns the stack: hardware, software, fleet, and network.

Logic: Once FSD works, marginal cost per ride is low (electricity + maintenance). Tesla keeps ~70%+ of fare (no driver). Comparison: Uber takes 25-30% and is barely profitable. Waymo's unit economics are still unpublished. Risk: Insurance costs, regulatory fees, fleet maintenance could erode margins significantly.

Bear vs Bull — What Must Go Right

Bear Case ($800)

Robotaxi delayed to 2028+
Vehicle sales flat at ~2M/yr
FSD remains supervised
Margins stay compressed
Competition erodes market share

Bull Case ($2,600)

Unsupervised FSD works by 2027
Robotaxi in 50+ cities by 2029
12M+ vehicle deliveries
Energy becomes $50B+ business
Optimus begins generating revenue

Analysis based on ARK Invest's open-source TSLA valuation model (Feb 2025). GitHub Model

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